Monthly Market Report–Data Thru August 2019
all the charts are interactive: click or hover for each data point
Looking at the metro area as a WHOLE price appreciation has been lessening since early 2017 (when comparing rolling 12 month averages). To be clear, this doesn’t mean prices were falling but that the rate at which they were rising was lessening. In February 2017 median home price was up 13% and average was up 12%. In August 2019 median price was up by 1.9% and average price was up by 2.2%. The chart below illustrates this.
The chart below shows the monthly average and median prices for the metro area since 2016. Prices continue to follow seasonal trends but year over year each monthly price has topped the same month from the year before. In August 2019 the average price was $462,600; the median was $417,500.
The chart below shows how this years ‘year to date’ prices compare to other years.
But if it seems that prices are just on some sort of inexorable march upward, breaking down the metro market as a whole into discrete areas shows that we do now see some areas that have shown an actual decline in average pricing (using the rolling 12 month average model for comparison). Check out the table below. Lake Oswego and West Linn show a decline as does west Portland as a whole. What’s more, the other ‘core’ metro areas of north, northeast and southeast Portland are actually below the average metro price increase of 2.2%. A word of caution regarding the northeast and southeast sections: these areas are vast, stretching far to the east; it would be interesting to break down pricing in them along the lines of east and west of 82nd avenue for example. Still, it is notable that the suburbs are showing stronger than the city core.
|Area||% Price Change|
|Oregon City/ Canby||4.0%|
|Lake Oswego/ West Linn||-0.7%|
|NW Wash Co||-2.5%|
|Hillsboro/ Forest Grove||4.1%|
Supply and Demand
On the supply and demand side of things tight inventory is often been cited as a dominant factor in why prices have risen over the past few years and why they remain strong. The chart below shows that the volume of active residential listings has dipped below levels of 2018.
But pending sales increased slightly over 2018 number for August (2929/2760) and while closed sales were slightly lower in August 2019 than 2018 (2901/2967), the demand side of things remains high relative to the amount of inventory.
Inventory expressed as months supply remained unchanged from July. Marketing time expressed as days on market increased to 48 days and remains higher than the previous 3 years.