Market Monthly Report May 2019

link back home

Market Data May 2019

all the charts are interactive: click or hover for each data point

What’s happening in the Portland home sales market? On the pricing side metro area sales prices are rising on a month over previous month basis with seasonal ups and downs. Average home price for May 2019 was $471,200. Median home price was $420,000.

But when you compare the rolling average and median sales price for the past 12 months (6/1/18 thru 5/30/19) to the 12 months before (6/1/17 thru 5/30/18) you see that rate of price appreciation is decelerating, as the chart below shows. Price increases have eased from 13%+ rate to to 3.4% and 2.6% for May 2019. And if you compare the average sale price of a home in January, February, March, April or May in 2019 to the same month in 2018 you find that prices are essentially flat.

The above chart shows the percent of change in the price of a home based upon the average or median price over a period of 12 months (ending with that month) as compared to the price of a home for the same 12 month period but ending 1 year earlier.

On the supply and demand side of things tight inventory is often been cited as a dominant factor in why prices have risen over the past few years and why they remain strong. The chart below shows that the number or active residential listings has increased a bit compared to levels of 2017 and 2018 but…

… the inventory level is still at just over 2 months for the Portland market and dipped slightly from April despite the fact that more new listings came onto the market in May of 2019 than for any May since 2008. But both pending sales closed sales also increased over a year ago. So inventory remains skimpy at best. It is interesting to note that days on market, or time before an accepted offer remains higher in 2019 than any year since 2015.

So it seems price increases are slowing but there is still a 2-3+% appreciation over a 12 month period. Demand seems to be steady, keeping the inventory low. Mortgage interest rates have dropped down again. Without a significant change in demand and/or a significant uptick in interest rates, Portland metro home prices seem unlikely to decline. Perhaps the best aspect of what the current data indicates is that home price appreciation may be settling into a modest and more sustainable rate; that would be good news for everyone.